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Democrats are poised to retake control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections, according to recent polling and political analysts.
All 435 House seats will be up for election in November 2026. As President Donald Trump's approval rating continues to decline, largely due to concerns over the economy, inflation, and cost of living, the Republican Party is expected to lose House seats. Viet Shelton, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), told Newsweek that polling shows voters are “souring” on House Republicans and their policy record.
Generic ballot polling currently gives Democrats an edge in the House, though results vary widely. According to polling by YouGov/The Economist, Democrats lead Republicans 43 percent to 40 percent among registered voters. Democrats hold a much larger lead, 54 percent to 38 percent, according to AtlasIntel polling.
Redistricting could influence outcomes in key states. Republicans have redrawn maps in Texas, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio to favor GOP seats, while Democrats have countered in states like California. Utah has been ordered to create a new Democratic-leaning district centered on Salt Lake City.
Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington, told Newsweek that Democrats are “very likely to take over the House,” noting that redistricting efforts by both parties will largely cancel each other out.
Farnsworth added that Republican retirements could also hurt the party's chances of retaining control of the House.
“Trump’s unpopularity right now means that a lot of Republicans are choosing not to run for reelection,” Farnsworth said.
Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority with 220 seats, compared to 213 held by Democrats, with two Democratic seats vacant. Republicans won the 2024 House popular vote by about 2.6 percentage points.
The Cook Political Report currently rates 208 seats as leaning Democratic, 210 as leaning Republican, with the remainder competitive. Five Democratic-held seats and twelve Republican-held seats are considered toss-ups.
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